Climate models had already predicted an unusually intense El Niño event in Oceania. However, its manifestation has global repercussions, directly linked to various climatic phenomena worldwide, including the drought currently affecting India. The nation and the wider Asian subcontinent experienced a remarkably dry June, marking it as the fifth driest June on record since data collection began in 1901. While the monsoon is expected to arrive in July, rainfall is projected to be weaker than average, raising alarm bells across the country.
According to reports, the monsoon is crucial, supplying 70% of the annual water reserves vital for replenishing water sources and sustaining agriculture. This sector, valued at $4 trillion, provides direct employment and livelihoods for half of India’s population.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that monsoon rainfall in July will fall below 94% of the long-term average, a common occurrence in El Niño years. Historically, India has experienced below-average rainfall in most El Niño years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that devastate crops and compel authorities to restrict exports of certain grains.
Despite this precarious situation, farmers remain hopeful of sowing their summer crops (rice, cotton, maize, and soybeans), provided rainfall intensifies in the coming days, as predicted by the meteorological service.