UEFA Champions League Quarter-Finals: Statistical Predictions for Who Will Win

The UEFA Champions League quarter-finals kick off today, promising thrilling encounters. One of the most anticipated matchups is undoubtedly the European classic between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. This historic fixture, the most frequent in Champions League and European Cup history, has been played 28 times, with a record of 14 victories for Madrid and 11 for Bayern.

Meanwhile, Sporting Lisbon will aim to spring a surprise against a potentially vulnerable Arsenal, especially with Viktor Gyokeres returning to his former club. On Wednesday, Barcelona will host Atlético Madrid for a second consecutive clash, while Liverpool will challenge the reigning champions, Paris Saint-Germain.

According to in-depth statistical analyses, and despite recent disappointments in the EFL Cup and FA Cup where they were eliminated by Manchester City and Southampton, Arsenal remains one of the favorites for the competition. Following thousands of simulations, here are the probabilities of qualification for the semi-finals assigned to each team:

Arsenal: 77.7% chance of qualification against Sporting (22.3%).
Bayern Munich: 64.5% chance of qualification against Real Madrid (35.5%).
Barcelona: 68% chance of qualification against Atlético Madrid (32%).
Paris Saint-Germain: 59.6% chance of qualification against Liverpool (40.4%).

These analyses suggest that the clash between PSG and Liverpool will be the most evenly matched. Although Liverpool has had a disappointing season, PSG has also not been flawless this year and is still vying for the domestic title. While Arsenal, Bayern, and Barcelona appear to have a significant advantage over their opponents, one question remains: can Real Madrid, the undisputed masters of the Champions League, truly be counted out?