The brief respite was short-lived. Last week, there was a reason for optimism as rain returned to India following the driest month in 12 years, which had led to severe water rationing across the Asian nation. However, this was not enough. The monsoon, which is delayed in its arrival, is not compensating as much or as early as anticipated.
Consequently, India has experienced an exceptionally dry start to its monsoon season. June’s rainfall was 39.8% below the long-term average, making it the fifth driest June since records began in 1901, and the driest in over a decade. As previously reported, the weak monsoon has repercussions for agriculture and water supply security, slowing down the planting of key summer crops such as rice, corn, cotton, and soybeans. As also highlighted in our earlier reports, nearly half of India’s agricultural land is not irrigated, and approximately half of its enormous population depends on agriculture.
However, July begins tomorrow, and this seventh month may not bring sufficient relief. The Indian Meteorological Department forecasts that rainfall will remain below average (at less than 94% of the average for this period). Additionally, El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months, which will further weigh on monsoon rains, thus raising concerns about crop yields and the country’s economic growth.
