Arsenal and Manchester City are locked in a fierce two-horse race for the Premier League title. Following City’s 2-1 victory at the Etihad, a scenario where both teams win all their remaining fixtures (five for Arsenal, six for City) would see them finish the season with an identical points total.
While Arsenal has led the table for most of the season, their initial nine-point advantage has dwindled to a mere three (with City holding a game in hand) in the span of just a week. Considering recent form across all competitions, Manchester City appears to have a slight edge in securing more wins in the closing weeks, especially with Arsenal facing the added pressure of a Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid.
However, should both teams end up with the same number of points, the Premier League title would be awarded to the team with a superior goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded).
Currently, their goal differences are remarkably close. Arsenal boasts a slightly better goal difference of +37, with 63 goals scored and 26 conceded. City has a goal difference of +36, having scored 65 goals and conceded 29. Crucially, City has a game in hand. If Manchester City were to win their postponed match against Crystal Palace from gameweek 31 by a single goal (the date is yet to be confirmed), they would be level on both points AND goal difference!
Other Premier League Tiebreakers
In the highly unlikely event that two teams finish the Premier League with the same points and the same goal difference, the title would be decided by the team that has scored more goals. Presently, Arsenal has scored 63 goals, while City has a higher tally of 65.
Should they remain tied even in goal difference and goals scored, the title would go to the team with the better head-to-head record. In this scenario, City would prevail, having won 2-1 at home last Sunday and drawn 1-1 at Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium in September 2025. If Arsenal had won that particular fixture, the title would then be determined by the number of away goals scored in those head-to-head encounters.
The last time a Premier League title was decided by goal difference was in the 2011/12 season, when Manchester City edged out Manchester United, both finishing on 89 points, but City had a superior goal difference of +8.
Who do you believe will win the 2025/26 Premier League title?